issues in global trade and finance

a study of the global nature of our economy and the effects of the global economy

Sunday, April 17, 2005

A spike in prices, apeak to outoput- will oil be the downfall of global growth?

The article A spike in prices, a peak to output- will oil be the downfall of global growth? found at www.energybulletin.net talks about the future and what may be in store for the world if oil prices spiked to one hundred dollars plus. Hamish McRae, who wrote the article, speaks of having another oil shock that could be the end of current expansion of the world economy. This could very well happen as investment bank Goldman Sachs has already put out a paper warning that a super spike, which could drive the price per barrel to one hundred and five dollars, might alredy be upon us. If the oil prices rise to such a height it would mean that the real price today would be higher than the real price of the early nineteen eighties, which was eighty five dollars. McRae writes that if this should happen we will be forced to think of new alternatives to gas and oil. Any way you look at it we will eventually be forced to use alternate methods with China and India demanding more oil everyday and oil fields aren't exactly reproducing oil. McRae also writes of a recession that may happen if the price spikes to one hundred plus dollars, which may be offset by a crash program to boost energy efficiency. If this price spike were to happen we would, at the least, experience a few years of slow growth and some definite life style changes. I think if this happened we would also see prices for consumers rise across the board. Let us all keep our fingers crossed that this so called "super spike" never happens and that oil prices will fall back again so all my money doesn't go to the gas tank and pizza prices don't rise any higher.

1 Comments:

  • At 9:32 PM, Shawtytip said…

    If the spike in prices occurs then you will definitley see a change in lifesytles. You will probably find that people will make as few trips as possible using cars. I believe that the demand of SUVs will decrease in the U.S. and other countries as well.

     

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